{"id":1208,"date":"2017-03-14T19:37:29","date_gmt":"2017-03-14T23:37:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/?p=1208"},"modified":"2025-10-31T11:51:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T15:51:10","slug":"2017-chokers-index-teams-will-wreck-brackets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/2017-chokers-index-teams-will-wreck-brackets\/","title":{"rendered":"2017 Choker’s Index: Teams That Will Wreck Your Brackets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What began as a simple experiment three years ago has now become a yearly obsession! I must complete this year’s version of the Choker’s Index at all costs! Do you know why? Because I need to be able to identify the teams that will wreck your brackets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you’re not familiar with the Choker’s Index<\/strong>, it’s a deep-dive into the data that surrounds which<\/em> NCAA men’s basketball teams have a historical record of choking the big game and thusly… destroying your bracket. It’s heady stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hear you cry, “But this isn’t real estate? What’s going on Tre?!?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Ok, I hear you, and here’s where I share something truly deep and heartfelt… ok, ready? Here I go… I do other stuff besides real estate. “Gasp!”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now with the pleasantries out of the way, make way for the heavy lifting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the Choker’s Index Works<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

First, the ground rules:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Only schools that\u2019ve been to 15 or more NCAA tournaments since the field was expanded to 64 in 1985 are included.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Losing to a team seeded worse than yours counts. Losing to a better team doesn’t. When you’re a #10 and you get beat in the opening round by that #7, we’re not concerned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Opening rounds games count the most. As the tournament progresses, the factor is reduced slightly each round.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The bigger the defeat, the more it costs you! If you’re the #1 seed and you fall to the #2 in the fourth round, that only costs you a half point. No biggie. But when the #15 knocks out the #2 in the opening round… BLAM!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Let’s go!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Last Year’s Results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    When I add last year’s chokers to the spreadsheet, we now have 32 years of data. That’s a decent-sized dataset boy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    One thing I chart is the average total<\/em> of Choker Points. That number is now 37.61. So, years when the yearly total is lower, that’s a year we didn’t see many upsets in our brackets. To be specific, that year was 2009 with a paltry 11.18. Weak sauce!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The worst offender that<\/em> year was Illinois (#5) when they lost in the first round to Western Kentucky (#12). Everything else was a small change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Our craziest, most upset-ridden, year was 1990. Check these out!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Missouri (#3) lost to Northern Iowa (#14) in the 1st Round: 11<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Illinois (#5) lost to Dayton (#12) in the 1st Round: 7<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Louisville (#4) lost to Ball St. (#12) in the 2nd Round: 6.72<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Purdue (#2) lost to Texas (#10) in the 2nd Round: 6.72<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Michigan (#3) lost to Loyola Marymount (#11) in the 2nd Round: 6.72<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Oklahoma (#1) lost to North Carolina (#8) in the 2nd Round: 5.88<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Arizona (#2) lost to Alabama (#7) in the 2nd Round: 4.2<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Kansas (#2) lost to UCLA (#7) in the 2nd Round: 4.2<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Syracuse (#2) lost Minnesota (#6) in the 3rd Round: 2.68<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Xavier (#6) lost to Texas (#10) in the 3rd Round: 2.68<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Georgetown (#3) lost to Xavier (#6) in the 2nd Round: 2.52<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Michigan St. (#1) lost to Georgia Tech (#4) in the 3rd Round: 2.01<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • UConn (#1) lost to Duke (#3) in the 4th Round: 1<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Indiana (#8) lost to California (#9) in the 1st Round: 1<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      That’s a whopping total of 64.33<\/strong> Choker Points for the year during the 1990 NCAA Tournament. If only every year was that much fun!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Last year’s 2016 NCAA Tournament was far less<\/em> volatile. Here are the chokers who shouldn’t have lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Michigan St. (#2) lost to Middle Tennessee St. (#15) in the 1st Round: 13<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Purdue (#5) lost to Arkansas Little Rock (#12) in the 1st Round: 7<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Arizona (#6) lost to Wichita St. (#11) in the 1st Round: 5<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Texas (#6) lost to Northern Iowa (#11) in the 1st Round: 5<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Xavier (#2) lost to Wisconsin (#7) in the 2nd Round: 4.2<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Kentucky (#4) lost to Indiana (#5) in the 2nd Round: 0.84<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Kansas (#1) lost to Villanova (#2) in the 1st Round: 0.5<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • North Carolina (#1) lost to Villanova (#2) in the Final Game: 0.17<\/strong> Choker Points<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        This was a fairly average year for Choker Points with a total of 35.71<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        2017 Choker’s Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Now let’s look at all the years and all the schools!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"Chokers
        Our local teams are in bold but look near the top for those schools that are most likely to wreck your brackets.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        With this in mind (because we know data can’t lie) here are the Top 10 teams that will wreck your brackets in 2017<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. Notre Dame | Spread -6.5 – Won by 2<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        2. UCLA | Spread -18<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        3. Michigan | Spread -2.5 – Won by 1<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        4. Gonzaga | Spread -22 – Won by 20<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        5. Michigan St. | Spread +2<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        6. Wisconsin | Spread -5.5 – Won by 10<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        7. Arizona | Spread -16.5 – Won by 18<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        8. Kansas | Spread -23<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        9. Villanova | Spread -26.5 – Won by 20<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        10. Louisville | Spread -20<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          (First Round Updated: 3\/17)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          These aren’t the upsets, these are the favorites that choke<\/em> to a lower side. How Kansas isn’t higher on this list, I have no idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Play responsibly my friends, and don’t make me say, “I told you so.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          What began as a simple experiment three years ago has now become a yearly obsession! I must complete this year’s version of the Choker’s Index at all costs! Do you know why? Because I need to be able to identify the teams that will wreck your brackets. If you’re not familiar with the Choker’s Index, it’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[788],"tags":[128,163],"class_list":["post-1208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion","tag-ncaa-tournament","tag-teams-that-will-wreck-your-brackets","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1208"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24732,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208\/revisions\/24732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}