{"id":1622,"date":"2018-03-11T06:00:10","date_gmt":"2018-03-11T06:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/?p=1622"},"modified":"2023-03-21T00:04:47","modified_gmt":"2023-03-21T00:04:47","slug":"picking-march-madness-brackets-chokers-index-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/picking-march-madness-brackets-chokers-index-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Picking March Madness Brackets: Choker&#8217;s Index 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It started out as a simple experiment. Which NCAA men&#8217;s basketball teams historically <em>choked the most<\/em>? It has now become a yearly obsession. Picking March Madness brackets is now an annual ritual\u2014one that comes with fierce emotions. These emotions strongly pull most fans to move their team forward in the tournament while X&#8217;ing off the teams they hate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Iowa_State_basketball.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"444\" src=\"https:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Iowa_State_basketball.jpg\" alt=\"Photo of Iowa St basketball players\" class=\"wp-image-1624\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Iowa_State_basketball.jpg 700w, https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Iowa_State_basketball-300x190.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Iowa State will not be in this year&#8217;s NCAA tournament (dead last in the Big 12) but if they were, you&#8217;d be wise to not pick them in your brackets.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Don&#8217;t let emotions rule you. You&#8217;re better than that! Use data instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, I present the <strong>2018 Edition of the Choker&#8217;s Index<\/strong>. What is the Choker&#8217;s Index you say? Well, I&#8217;m glad you asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Choker&#8217;s Index began in 2013. Each year after I added a bit more.&nbsp; Last year I published this piece right here on TrePryor.com, even though college basketball is a far cry from <a href=\"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Louisville real estate<\/a>. I say, &#8220;Adios!&#8221; to convention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, I&#8217;ve updated all the data that stretches back to the beginning of the expanded NCAA field in 1985. Here are the criteria:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I&#8217;m only\u00a0looking at schools that&#8217;ve made the tournament for at least 15 years. Here are the 11 teams I added this year: Georgia Tech,\u00a0Iowa, Iowa State, LSU, Marquette, N. Carolina State, Stanford, Utah, Virginia, W. Virginia, and Wake Forest.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Index is weighted. Opening rounds games count the most, and as the tournament progresses, the factor is reduced slightly each round.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When you are a higher seed and lose that&#8217;s the only thing that matters. Losing to a better team doesn&#8217;t affect the team&#8217;s Choker&#8217;s Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bigger the defeat, the more it costs you! If you\u2019re the #1 seed and you fall to the #2 in the fourth round, that only costs you a half-point. No biggie. But when the #15 knocks out the #2 in the opening round, that&#8217;s 13 points!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Biggest Upsets in NCAA Tournament History<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of which, here are the biggest upsets (choke jobs) in the history of the NCAA Tournament! I&#8217;ve linked up some video highlights on those game scores. Enjoy!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Year<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Choker<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Underdog<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Game<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1991<\/td><td>Syracuse<\/td><td>Richmond<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=hO9kxFIJngs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">69-73<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1993<\/td><td>Arizona<\/td><td>Santa Clara<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=BtZTyDRbE4Q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">61-64<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1997<\/td><td>South Carolina<\/td><td>Coppin State<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OSMuXaQe-T0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">78-65<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2001<\/td><td>Iowa State<\/td><td>Hampton<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=X5Ahi3yUUgk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">57-58<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2012<\/td><td>Missouri<\/td><td>Norfolk State<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=04E0aOAOonw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">84-96<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2012<\/td><td>Duke<\/td><td>Lehigh<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DO5Saq4QOZM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">70-75<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2013<\/td><td>Georgetown<\/td><td>Florida Gulf Coast<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=jlIBRkr4Ar4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">68-78<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2016<\/td><td>Michigan State<\/td><td>Middle Tennessee State<\/td><td><a class=\"in-cell-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=TR2hKatoW-k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">81-90<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Choker&#8217;s in the 2017 NCAA Tournament<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So before we get to the updated index, let&#8217;s see who laid down last year. Who wet the bed? Which team simply laid an egg?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it turns out,&nbsp;2017 wasn&#8217;t a big year for upsets with just 7. Seeds held strong, even though all the experts thought the tournament was wide open. Go figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here&#8217;s who did choke last year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Arizona (2) lost to Xavier (11) in the third round: -6<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Villanova (1) lost to Wisconsin (8) in the second round: -5.9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Maryland (6) lost to Xavier (11) in the first round: -5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Duke (2) lost to S. Carolina (7) in the second round: -4.2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Louisville (2) lost to Michigan (7) in the second round: -4.2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Florida (4) lost to Wisconsin (8) in the third round: -2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kansas (1) lost to Oregon (3) in the fourth round: -1<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Putting all those together only results in a Choker Index of 28.3 for the year. Lame! It&#8217;s just a little better than the lowest year on record\u2014a -19.2 index point in 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We want more upsets. How about this year we see another year like 2001 when the index sky-rocketed up to <strong>78.12<\/strong>! Let&#8217;s go underdogs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 2018 Choker&#8217;s Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ok, enough of the preliminaries, let&#8217;s get the chart so you can know who <strong>not to select<\/strong>\u00a0when you pick March Madness brackets this year. This year I kept the negative sign so that we can better see that it&#8217;s a problem with a large number next to your favorite team&#8217;s name. The Choker&#8217;s Index is the average<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/2018-Chokers-Index.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"432\" height=\"923\" src=\"https:\/\/www.trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/2018-Chokers-Index.png\" alt=\"2018 Choker's Index\" class=\"wp-image-1623\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/2018-Chokers-Index.png 432w, https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/2018-Chokers-Index-140x300.png 140w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 432px) 100vw, 432px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Here&#8217;s the updated Choker&#8217;s Index for 2018 so you can pick your March Madness brackets with confidence.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So we see some newcomers rise to the top of the list. Last year&#8217;s report went to Missouri, Notre Dame, and then UCLA. Now we&#8217;ve got Iowa State, Missouri, and West Virginia. It&#8217;s crazy because West Virginia doesn&#8217;t choke often, just 20% of the time but when they do&#8230; <strong>look out<\/strong>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The inverse is Iowa State who only choked 3 games out of their 18 tournament appearances but 2 of those were <em>massive<\/em> choke jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average Choker&#8217;s Index for all the teams in this report is -4.07, which is where the red line lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s really up to you whether to devalue teams that choke more often or those that perform the biggest chokes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fun Facts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Average Number of Upsets Per Year: <strong>8.82<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Biggest Upset Year: <strong>2006<\/strong>&nbsp;(17 Upsets)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Average Choker Index Total Per Year: <strong>34.22<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Largest Choker Index Total:&nbsp;<strong>2001<\/strong> (78.12 Choker Index Points)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So there you have it. Go forth and win your bracket contest!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It started out as a simple experiment. Which NCAA men&#8217;s basketball teams historically choked the most? It has now become a yearly obsession. Picking March Madness brackets is now an annual ritual\u2014one that comes with fierce emotions. These emotions strongly pull most fans to move their team forward in the tournament while X&#8217;ing off the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[788],"tags":[204],"class_list":["post-1622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion","tag-picking-march-madness-brackets","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1622"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18665,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1622\/revisions\/18665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trepryor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}